The Quick Pulse

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During the week of October 26th through November 1st 2025, global markets and crypto traders navigated a mix of macro and geopolitical catalysts. Early optimism stemmed from reports that U.S. and Chinese negotiators had reached a “preliminary consensus” on contentious trade issues, prompting President Trump’s team to downplay the threat of sweeping tariffs; this détente drove bitcoin above $113,000 and lifted ETH and SOL by a few percentage points. Heading into the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Oct 28th through 29th, major tokens traded higher in anticipation of a widely expected 25‑bp rate cut. The Fed delivered the cut, lowering its policy range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent and emphasizing data dependence in the face of a U.S. government shutdown and a softening labor market. Because the move was fully priced in, investors sold the news: the total crypto‑market capitalization slipped 1.5 %, with Bitcoin falling about 3.5% and Solana down roughly 2 %, while liquidations spiked and the Fear & Greed Index fell into fear territory. The later part of the week focused on the APEC summit in South Korea, where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met for the first time since re‑escalated trade tensions. Analysts noted that a de‑escalation could drive a risk‑on rally while renewed tariffs could send Bitcoin back toward early‑October lows near $103,000, highlighting how sensitive crypto has become to U.S.–China dynamics. The meeting ended without a joint statement, adding to uncertainty and reinforcing the cautious tone set by the Fed. Together, these events gave crypto markets a roller‑coaster week: trade optimism fueled an early rally, but a priced‑in Fed cut and unresolved trade talks prompted profit‑taking and left investors awaiting clearer policy signals as we head into November.

Current Market Prices (Nov 2nd 2025)

Asset	Price (USD)
Bitcoin (BTC)	≈ $110,300
Ethereum (ETH)	≈ $3,870
Solana (SOL)	≈ $186

Deep Dive: Prediction Markets and Related Cryptocurrencies

1. What are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts whose payoff depends on the outcome of future events. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome. For example, a $0.60 price on a “Trump Wins” contract implies a 60 % market-implied probability of victory. Platforms often use continuous double auctions or automated market makers (AMMs) to facilitate trading. Contracts may be settled with real money or play money; researchers also use reputation-only markets to crowd‑source forecasts.

The appeal of prediction markets comes from their ability to aggregate diverse information quickly. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, millions of participants turned to prediction markets; Polymarket alone recorded over $9 billion in volume in 2024 with $2.63 billion in November 2024. This surge extended into 2025 as regulatory clarity improved, mainstream media covered market forecasts and institutional investors began using event contracts for hedging and information gathering.

2. Drivers Behind the 2024–2025 Explosion

Several factors converged to produce an unprecedented boom in prediction markets:

Regulatory evolution - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted no‑action letters and approvals for event-contract markets such as Kalshi and, later, Aristotle (PredictIt’s parent company). Aristotle received approval in September 2025 to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
Technological progress - Blockchain technologies enable decentralized prediction markets. They provide transparent settlement and low transaction costs via smart contracts and AMMs. Platforms like Polymarket run on Polygon, while Omen operates on Gnosis Chain and multiple networks. Hybrid systems such as Rain integrate AI-driven oracles and cross-chain settlement.
Mass‑market events - The 2024 U.S. election showcased how markets can forecast outcomes ahead of polls. After the election, traders migrated to markets on Federal Reserve rate decisions, geopolitics and sports. Polymarket traders assigned a 98 % probability that the Fed would hold rates steady before the June 2025 meeting. The Bank of Japan, U.S.–China trade talks and FOMC meetings became major trading themes for crypto‑focused traders.
Institutional acceptance - Financial firms such as Susquehanna set up teams to trade event contracts. ICE (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) invested in Polymarket, while Robinhood integrated Kalshi contracts. Even Donald Trump’s media company announced a partnership with Crypto.com to launch Truth Predict, bringing prediction markets to the Truth Social platform.
Token economics - Speculation about governance tokens drives valuations. Fortune reports that Polymarket is valued at about $9 billion nearly double Kalshi’s $5 billion valuation because investors anticipate a forthcoming POLY token drop. Kalshi lacks a native token but leads U.S. market share, underscoring how token hype can inflate valuations.

3. Major Prediction Market Platforms and Tokens

3.1 Polymarket (POLY token expected)

Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market. Built on Polygon, it offers low transaction fees, a simple Web3 interface and 24‑hour trading. During the 2024 election cycle it recorded $9 billion in volume and over 314,500 active traders. In June 2025 the platform posted $1.16 billion monthly volume, even as active traders declined; the average account traded $4,800, double the January average. Markets cover politics, macroeconomic indicators, sports and crypto events.

Polymarket has faced regulatory scrutiny. It paid a $1.4 million fine to the CFTC in 2022 and excludes U.S. users. The FBI raided the founder’s home in late 2024. Critics cite the potential for market manipulation by large traders and the lack of a formal dispute‑resolution process. Despite these issues, investors value the platform for its token potential. A Fortune report notes that Polymarket’s higher valuation relative to Kalshi is largely due to expectations of a POLY governance token airdrop. The token would likely grant governance rights, fee discounts or revenue sharing.

3.2 Kalshi (no native token)

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market authorized by the CFTC to offer real‑money event contracts. The platform operates like an exchange; participants buy “Yes” or “No” contracts on questions such as “Will the Fed raise rates at the next meeting?” In October 2025 Kalshi reported over $4 billion in trading volume in the preceding 30 days. The surge was driven by expansion into sports markets and partnerships with Robinhood users accounted for roughly 25–35 % of daily volume. Kalshi operates in more than 140 countries and is valued at $5 billion.

Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi emphasises regulatory compliance and does not yet have a token. Its contracts settle through a central clearinghouse, providing a safe environment. Kalshi’s strong legal footing and partnerships with mainstream brokers have helped event contracts gain mainstream acceptance. However, it faces state-level legal challenges in Maryland, New Jersey and Nevada, illustrating the complex U.S. regulatory landscape.

3.3 Omen & the Gnosis (GNO) Token

Omen is a fully decentralized prediction market platform developed by DXdao, built atop the Gnosis conditional token framework. Users can create or participate in markets covering crypto, politics and sports; markets resolve through Reality.eth and, in case of dispute, Kleros arbitration. Omen uses an AMM to provide constant liquidity and charges a 2% trading fee that goes to liquidity providers. Markets can be categorical (multiple outcomes) or binary.

Omen leverages Gnosis (GNO), the native token of the Gnosis ecosystem. A Gate.com overview notes that GNO is not only a governance token but also grants access to Gnosis products (Gnosis Safe, Gnosis Protocol and Conditional Tokens) and powers prediction markets. GNO holders participate in GnosisDAO governance; token value is tied to adoption of decentralized finance and prediction markets. Liquidity for GNO remains low relative to major tokens but is expected to grow as Omen expands.

3.4 Augur & the Reputation (REP) Token

Augur was one of the first decentralized prediction markets. Its REP (Reputation) token powers the oracle and dispute system; holders stake REP to report outcomes and earn fees when they accurately report event results. REP supply is capped at 11 million, with 80 % sold in the 2015 ICO. Owning REP entitles holders to a share of reporting fees with each REP grants 1/22,000,000 of fees collected. If reporters provide false outcomes, they risk losing staked REP to honest reporters.

Augur markets are fully peer‑to‑peer and do not rely on central authorities however, adoption has lagged due to complex onboarding and higher gas fees. Open interest and user numbers remain modest. Despite this, Augur paved the way for subsequent prediction protocols and demonstrates how tokenized governance and dispute resolution can function without regulators.

3.5 Rain Protocol & the RAIN Token

Rain is a next‑generation prediction protocol built on Arbitrum with plans for multi‑chain expansion. CryptoSlate describes Rain as a decentralized prediction markets protocol that combines AMM technology, decentralized oracles and AI‑assisted dispute resolution. Key features include:

Permissionless market creation – users can launch public or private markets on any topic.
Hybrid resolution system – five AI agents analyze outcomes; if three agree, the result is settled; disputes are escalated to human oracles.
Advanced AMM architecture – dynamic pricing ensures continuous liquidity and scalable markets.
Decentralized oracles and multi‑chain interoperability – Rain plans to operate across Ethereum, Base and BNB Chain.
Tokenomics – the RAIN token powers governance and a buyback‑and‑burn mechanism; a 2.5% trading fee funds token burn and protocol sustainability.

Rain markets can be used for global events, sports, DeFi governance and corporate forecasting. Its integration of AI and oracles aims to address trust issues that plague decentralized markets.

3.6 Myriad Markets (Potential Token)

Myriad Markets launched in March 2025 and integrates prediction markets into media consumption. According to MarketsWiki, the platform operates on multiple blockchains (initially Abstract and Linea) and allows users to make predictions across crypto, politics, sports and entertainment. Myriad is part of DASTAN, a parent company formed through the merger of Decrypt Media and Rug Radio. Early adoption metrics are impressive: within six months the browser extension had over 60,000 downloads and users placed over 5.4 million predictions, generating $18.5 million in USDC trading volume. Markets have ranged from crypto prices to whimsical topics like counting birds over Texas. Myriad aims to embed prediction markets directly into news consumption via a browser extension, blurring the line between media and trading. Lastly, they have hinted at an upcoming token with encrypted posts on X.

3.7 Other Platforms – Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt

Manifold Markets is a social prediction platform that uses play money called Mana. Users bet on topics ranging from elections to Oscars nominations, with an AMM known as maniswap. Manifold previously allowed real‑money betting via Sweepcash but discontinued this in March 2025. The play‑money model fosters a community of forecasters without regulatory entanglements; markets are often used for entertainment and skill development.
Metaculus hosts forecasting tournaments using reputation points rather than money. Between 2020 and 2025, Metaculus ran markets on scientific breakthroughs (COVID‑19 vaccine approvals, AGI milestones, fusion energy). Participants earn reputation for accurate forecasts, making it a research tool for policymakers and scientists.
PredictIt is a long‑standing U.S. prediction market focused on politics. It operated under a CFTC no‑action letter until August 2022, when the letter was revoked. After litigation, its parent company Aristotle secured DCM and DCO licenses from the CFTC in September 2025, enabling a regulated relaunch. PredictIt plans to expand beyond politics and raise per‑market investment limits. The regulated structure will increase open interest limits and allow unlimited traders.

4. The Role of Cryptocurrencies in Prediction Markets

A. Governance and Incentives

Many platforms use tokens to align incentives and decentralize control. For example, GNO holders vote on GnosisDAO proposals that influence Omen’s development. REP holders secure Augur’s oracle by staking and risk losing tokens for inaccurate reporting. RAIN holders govern Rain DAO and benefit from fee buybacks. These tokens often accrue value based on platform adoption and fee flows, making them speculative assets as well as governance instruments.

B. Collateral and Trading Currencies

Decentralized markets require stable collateral. Polymarket uses USDC on Polygon; Omen allows ETH or other ERC‑20 tokens; Rain accepts USDT or USDC while $RAIN is used for governance. Using stablecoins mitigates crypto volatility but introduces counterparty risk (e.g., stablecoin de‑pegging). Some platforms (e.g., Rain and Omen) plan cross‑chain support, broadening collateral options.

C. Speculative Tokens

Token airdrop speculation can fuel trading volumes. Anticipation of Polymarket’s POLY token has inflated its valuation relative to Kalshi. Investors may purchase small amounts of outcome shares or engage in wash trading to increase eligibility for future drops. This dynamic blurs the line between information markets and speculative token farming.

5. Macro and Regulatory Outlook

Prediction markets are expanding into mainstream finance and media. Institutional investors view them as alternative data sources; Susquehanna’s trading desk uses event contracts to gauge macro expectations. Exchanges like ICE are investing and exploring tokenized event contracts. At the same time, regulators grapple with whether certain markets constitute gambling or financial hedges. Kalshi’s expansion into sports contracts has prompted state cease‑and‑desist orders. The CFTC approved Aristotle’s new exchange but still debates whether sports event contracts are permissible.

Political pressure is also mounting. In October 2025, President Trump’s media company partnered with Crypto.com to offer prediction markets, and Japanese gaming giant Gumi announced a blockchain prediction initiative. Myriad launched on BNB Chain to target Asian users, while regulatory frameworks across Asia remain fragmented. Regional restrictions highlight the tension between innovation and gambling laws.

6. Conclusions and Implications for Traders

Prediction markets have matured from niche experiments to sophisticated platforms attracting billions of dollars. Decentralized protocols such as Polymarket and Rain offer transparency, composability and tokenized governance, while regulated exchanges like Kalshi and PredictIt provide legal certainty and mainstream access. A boom in 2024–2025 volumes underscores the appetite for event‑driven speculation and alternative data. However, traders must be mindful of regulatory risks, potential manipulation, token‑drop speculation and liquidity considerations. Understanding each platform’s design, token economics and dispute mechanisms is crucial when allocating capital or using these markets for macro insights.

Prediction markets are likely to continue growing as regulatory clarity improves and new protocols innovate with AI and cross‑chain architectures. For crypto traders, these markets offer not just speculation but also powerful tools for hedging macro risk and extracting crowd‑sourced information.

The Next Market Pulse: 11th Edition | Prediction Markets