Fed policy divergence and liquidity prospects – FOMC minutes released on 19 November show that several officials oppose further rate cuts in December, warning that cuts could reignite inflation. After the release, the probability of a December cut dropped to about 35% and Bitcoin quickly declined. However, the Fed’s own plan to end quantitative tightening (QT) by 1 December and transition toward quantitative easing (QE) in early 2026 signals a shift toward liquidity support. By late November markets had priced about a 68% chance of a 25 bp cut, weakening the dollar and buoying European equities.

Fiscal flows and the Treasury General Account (TGA) – The U.S. government reopened after a 43‑day shutdown on 18 November. During the closure the TGA balance climbed to $959 billion, far above the $413 billion reached during the 2018–19 shutdown. This build‑up implies a significant liquidity release once normal spending resumes. Bitget notes that as back pay and routine expenditures begin in early December, the TGA balance should fall, pushing funds back into markets; in 2019 similar dynamics boosted the stock market and bitcoin by 8.5% and 35% respectively within a month. The scale of this year’s TGA drawdown could therefore provide a sizable tailwind.

Dollar liquidity and the “Hayes liquidity index” – Arthur Hayes points out that U.S. dollar liquidity has shrunk by $1 trillion since July 2025. His liquidity index has dropped 10%, while Bitcoin rallied 12%; he attributes the divergence to basis traders arbitraging spot ETFs and futures.  As spreads collapsed, funds unwound, leading to a $463 million outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. Hayes warns that if liquidity tightens further, Bitcoin could revisit $80 000–$85 000; however, if the Fed and Treasury inject liquidity, he forecasts $200,000–$250 000 by year‑end.

Geopolitical and global risks – Rising Japanese bond yields, a slumping Hang Seng Index and yen weakness earlier in the month signalled global stress. FOMC caution combined with geopolitical tensions around NATO‑Russia and AI chip export restrictions kept the Geopolitical Risk Index elevated. In the UK, October inflation slowed to 3.6%, raising expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. Meanwhile, China’s equities sold off as investors took profits in AI‑related names, dragging the CSI 300 lower. These cross‑currents contribute to fragile risk sentiment.

Capitulation and extreme fear – Bitcoin tumbled from roughly $94,000 to $80,600 amid record ETF outflows and $2 billion of leveraged liquidations. The crypto Fear & Greed index collapsed to 11–12, signalling extreme fear. Altcoins suffered more severe drawdowns, and digital‑asset treasury firms saw their market caps fall to roughly $99 billion, reflecting waning corporate demand.

Correlation with tech and macro – Despite Nvidia’s blowout earnings, risk‑off sentiment persisted; the Nasdaq fell and Bitcoin declined, highlighting crypto’s high‑beta correlation with tech stocks. Fundstrat analysts note that extreme fear periods often precede multi‑month rallies, but warn that heavy AI valuations, tariffs, and interest‑rate worries could prolong the downturn. The interplay between macro events and crypto remains dominant; positions should be calibrated accordingly.

Upcoming catalysts – The Thanksgiving holiday week typically brings thin liquidity.  Weex notes that Bitcoin fell 18% in the prior week (its steepest drop since 2022) and highlights key macro data (U.S. retail sales, PPI, RBNZ decision, Beige Book, jobless claims) that traders will watch. Additionally, several spot ETFs including Dogecoin and XRP funds are slated to launch, which could influence sentiment and flows.

Infrastructure breakthrough – Monad, a high‑throughput layer‑1 blockchain, launched its mainnet on 24 November 2025.  The network claims 400ms finality and ~10 000 transactions per second while maintaining Ethereum‑virtual‑machine (EVM) compatibility. Integration with Cross River Bank provides fiat on‑ramps and real‑time settlement, offering regulatory‑compliant pathways for institutions.

Liquidity and ecosystem support – Major DeFi protocols such as Curve, Uniswap, USDC, MetaMask, Phantom were live at launch. Over 50.6% of MON’s supply is locked for ecosystem growth, and the initial token sale raised $269 million. Early adoption could position Monad as a scalable alternative to established chains, especially for high‑frequency trading and institutional DeFi. Traders may consider accumulating MON tokens on pullbacks or providing liquidity to early dApps, given the network’s low latency and cross‑chain bridges.

HIP‑3 upgrade – Hyperliquid’s HIP‑3 update allows permissionless listing of new perpetual swap markets and drastically reduces taker fees (a reported 90 % reduction in “growth mode”). The upgrade encourages market makers and introduces rebates to spur liquidity. Early data shows rising daily users and open interest, though open interest remains below pre‑flash‑crash levels.

Risk considerations – On November 13th, a price manipulation incident involving the POPCAT meme token triggered cascading liquidations, leaving Hyperliquid with about $4.9 million in bad debt. The episode underscores the protocol’s vulnerability to thin‑liquidity assets and the need for robust risk parameters. Hyperliquid has responded by reviewing internal controls and emphasising transparency. Prospective traders should weigh the potential of HIP‑3 against the platform’s nascent risk management.

Expanded collateral and cross‑chain support – Aster’s November upgrade allows the ASTER token to serve as up to 80% margin collateral for perpetual trading, enhancing capital efficiency. Liquidity providers now receive 5% fee discounts and benefit from reduced impermanent‑loss risk, while cross‑chain compatibility with BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum broadens its user base.

Real‑world asset tokenization – Aster’s hybrid AMM‑CEX model integrates real‑world asset (RWA) tokenization, positioning it to capture yield from tokenized treasuries.  Following the upgrade, total value locked (TVL) rebounded toward $1 billion, illustrating renewed confidence. Investors seeking diversified yield might allocate to Aster liquidity pools or explore RWA‑backed products.

Balance caution with opportunism – Extreme fear readings and heavy liquidations indicate capitulation, but macro uncertainty persists. Position sizing should remain conservative until liquidity indicators turn decisively positive. Consider layering bids in the $80,000–$85,000 area and scaling into positions as macro data softens.

Rotate into quality and innovation – Focus on projects with strong fundamentals and real‑world integration, such as Monad and Aster. Avoid over‑exposure to highly levered meme tokens or illiquid micro‑caps that could face manipulation. For hedging, hold a portion of funds in stablecoins or short‑dated Treasury‑linked tokens.

Monitor macro calendars – Watch the December Fed meeting, PPI, unemployment claims and PMIs, as well as geopolitical developments. Thin holiday liquidity can magnify moves; set wider stop‑losses or reduce leverage during Thanksgiving week. An unexpected cease‑fire, inflation miss or policy pivot could trigger rapid repricing.

Exploit volatility via options and perps – Options on BTC or ETH can express directional views while limiting downside. Perpetual futures on Hyperliquid or Aster offer higher leverage but require strict risk management. Taking both long and short positions across correlated assets can hedge macro uncertainty.