⚡️ The Quick Pulse: What Moved Markets Last Week
Fed executes a 25bps cut; dissents highlight risk balance. On December 10th the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and signaled that any further policy adjustments will depend on data. The Fed also noted that reserve balances had fallen to the lower end of ample levels and announced short‑term Treasury purchases to maintain liquidity. The decision was contentious as Governor Stephen Miran voted for a 50 bp cut while two regional presidents voted to keep rates unchanged. Markets took the move as a modest dovish signal and priced in limited further easing for early‑2026.
Mixed macro data; labour reports postponed by shutdown. Last week’s economic releases were sparse due to the delayed October data. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points to 99.0, above its long‑term average, as small firms became more upbeat about sales prospects. Job openings in the JOLTS report increased slightly to 7.67 million in October while hiring and quits declined to multi‑year lows, producing what economists call a “no‑hire, no‑fire” labour market. Investors awaited the combined October/November non‑farm payrolls report and delayed CPI due on December 16 – 18th the first data releases since the government shutdown.
Bitcoin treasury buying spree intensifies. Strategy (MicroStrategy) bought 10,645 BTC for approximately $980.3 million between Dec 8th and Dec 14th, its largest weekly purchase since July. The company financed the purchase by selling common and preferred shares. This buying follows the previous week’s acquisition of 10,624 BTC; Strategy now holds 671,268 BTC worth more than $60 billion at current prices. The firm also set aside a $1.44 billion reserve to cover dividends and debt.
Ether treasuries increase; staked‑ETH ETF filings add momentum. Blockhead reported that BitMine Immersion Technologies (Tom Lee’s firm) purchased 138,452 ETH (~$435 million), boosting its holdings to 3.86 million ETH (about 3.2% of supply) and noting it bought the dip ahead of the Fed cut and Ethereum’s January Fusaka upgrade. Meanwhile, BlackRock filed for the iShares Staked Ethereum ETF, planning to stake 70–90% of its holdings and distribute rewards to investors.
Regulatory progress continues. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) conditionally approved national trust bank charters for Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, Fidelity Digital Assets, and First National Digital Currency Bank, allowing these firms to offer federally regulated crypto custody and trust services across state lines. 21Shares also launched its XRP ETF (ticker TOXR) on the Cboe BZX exchange after SEC approval; the fund charges a 0.3% annual fee and tracks the CME CF XRP–USD reference rate.
Global central banks diverge; Japan prepares to hike. Ahead of its Dec 18–19 meeting, sources told Reuters that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking its first rate hike since January and signalling a shift away from ultra‑easy policy . The prospect of a Japanese rate hike and ongoing euro‑area contraction kept global bond yields volatile.
Crypto | Price (USD) |
|---|---|
Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$85,800 |
Ethereum (ETH) | ~$2930 |
Solana (SOL) | ~$125 |
📰 Crypto News & Narratives
ETF ecosystem broadens beyond BTC and ETH. 21Shares’ newly launched XRP ETF (TOXR) opened a fresh avenue for investors seeking regulated exposure to Ripple’s token. BlackRock’s proposed staked‑ETH ETF underscores growing demand for yield‑bearing digital assets. Analysts expect the next wave of applications to target other large‑cap tokens, though SEC approval timelines remain uncertain.
Institutional rails expand. Conditional OCC charters for Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, Fidelity and First National Digital Currency Bank will enable nationally chartered trust banks to custody digital assets, paving the way for broader institutional participation. Observers say national charters could simplify regulatory compliance and reduce state‑by‑state licensing frictions.
Treasuries drive demand for major tokens. Massive purchases by Strategy and BitMine illustrate how corporate treasuries are using dips to accumulate core assets. These moves reinforce the view that Bitcoin and Ethereum remain macro proxies and inflation hedges in corporate balance sheets.
Crypto capital markets evolve. MicroStrategy’s serial stock‑funded purchases show that firms can tap equity markets to fund Bitcoin accumulation. Analysts note that the company’s Nasdaq 100 membership survived the annual rebalance despite concerns over passive fund outflows.
Alt‑coin catalysts. Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade promises lower fees and improved rollup support, drawing attention to layer‑2 ecosystems. Meanwhile, the launch of a U.S. XRP ETF may revitalize interest in Ripple’s cross‑border payments narrative.
🏦 Financial Markets Update
Equities – U.S. stocks remained volatile. The S&P 500 wavered as investors digested the Fed cut and awaited delayed employment and CPI data. Tech shares were mixed, while value sectors benefitted from hopes of rate cuts. In Japan, equities sold off on expectations of a BoJ hike.
Rates – Treasury yields fell after the Fed cut, but long‑end yields remained above 4%, reflecting uncertainty about future inflation. The Fed signaled that any additional cuts will depend on labour and inflation data. Japanese government bond yields climbed toward decade highs as markets priced in a BoJ rate hike.
Commodities – Oil prices eased on concerns about slowing global demand, while gold held near record highs as investors sought a hedge against policy uncertainty. Industrial metals were steady ahead of China’s December policy meetings.
🗓️ Macro Events to Watch (Dec. 16th – 20th 2025)
Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
Tuesday - Dec. 16th | Non‑farm payrolls (Oct & Nov) | The delayed jobs report will provide the first labor data since the shutdown. Barclays expects October payrolls to be flat and November to show ~50,000 jobs added; unemployment could rise to 4.5%. Markets will gauge how quickly labor conditions are cooling. |
Retail sales (Oct) | Consumer spending is key to Q4 GDP. October’s figures were postponed; a weak print would reinforce soft‑landing concerns. | |
S&P Global flash PMIs (Dec) | Manufacturing and services PMIs will offer timely insight into activity at year‑end. | |
Thursday - Dec. 18th | Weekly jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed index | Claims will reveal whether layoffs remain muted; the Philly Fed index measures manufacturing health in the Mid‑Atlantic region. |
Consumer Price Index & Core CPI (Nov) | Because October data was not collected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release only November figures. Barclays expects cumulative price increases from September to November of about 0.5%, implying CPI up 3.1% year over year. The lack of October data means the report may not provide a “clean” read on inflation. | |
Friday - Dec. 19th | University of Michigan consumer sentiment (rev); Existing home sales (Nov) | The revised sentiment index will show whether consumer confidence improved after the early‑December uptick, while existing home sales will gauge housing resilience. |
(Global) Wed Dec. 18th - Thu Dec. 19th | Bank of Japan policy decision | The BoJ is widely expected to raise its rate to 0.75%; markets will focus on guidance for future hikes and any tapering of bond purchases. A surprise could ripple across global risk assets. |
💡 Trading Desk Insight
Crypto remains tightly coupled to macro flows. The Fed’s quarter‑point cut temporarily eased funding conditions, but the split vote and data‑dependent language underscore that liquidity is not yet firmly risk‑on. With labor and inflation data delayed, traders should be prepared for outsized market reactions as the backlog of information arrives. Strategy’s and BitMine’s aggressive treasury purchases highlight how major players are positioning for a longer‑term bull cycle, but also underscore how quickly narratives can shift from forced liquidations in early December to opportunistic accumulation this week. Maintain disciplined position sizing as volatility around the upcoming employment report and CPI could trigger sharp moves in both directions.
🔍 Macro Pulse: Liquidity, Policy & the Bigger Picture
The liquidity regime is evolving. Quantitative tightening officially ended on December 1, and the Fed’s rate cut signaled the first step toward easier policy. However, the central bank’s cautious tone and the prospect of sticky services inflation suggest that future easing may be shallow. Meanwhile, Japan’s potential rate hike could drain global liquidity at the margin, as yen carry trades unwind. Combined with the absence of October data, these cross‑currents make December uniquely uncertain.
👓 Institutional Lens
Positioning – Hedge funds and macro funds reduced risk in early December but began adding exposure after the Fed cut. The upcoming data deluge will likely determine whether institutions rotate further into risk assets or stay defensive.
Flows – Strategy’s stock‑funded Bitcoin purchases show that corporate treasuries continue to allocate to digital gold, while BitMine’s ETH accumulation signals confidence in Ethereum’s upgrade cycle. ETF flows were mixed: spot‑BTC ETFs saw modest inflows; ETH ETF flows stabilised; the new XRP ETF attracted initial interest.
Narratives – The market’s focus has shifted from technical themes (layer‑2 scaling and tokenization) to macro catalysts (rate cuts, liquidity, and cross‑asset correlations). Anticipation of Japan’s policy shift and the U.S. labour/CPI data are the dominant narratives heading into the week.
🌍 The Bigger Picture
Crypto finished the week slightly softer but far more resilient than early December’s sell‑off. The Fed’s initial cut removed some uncertainty but did not unleash a full risk‑on environment. With key economic data delayed and the BoJ poised to raise rates for the first time in decades, markets face a pivotal week. Corporate treasuries and new ETFs signal structural demand for digital assets, yet macro headwinds could spark further volatility. Stay nimble, manage exposure sizes, and prepare for decisive moves as the data backlog clears and central banks lay out their paths for 2026.