The Next Market Pulse: 17th Edition

It’s been a few weeks since the last edition on December 15th, and that gap was intentional. The holiday stretch into year-end is traditionally one of the lowest-signal periods of the year: thin liquidity, distorted price action, and moves that rarely carry meaningful follow-through.

With the calendar now flipped and institutional desks back online, the market is transitioning out of seasonal noise and into its first real phase of price discovery for 2026. This week marks the first full liquidity environment of the new year and historically, that’s when direction starts to matter again.

This isn’t just another January week. It’s the reset week.

Holiday distortions are gone, macro data is back on the calendar, and Bitcoin is trading near the upper end of its recent range. That combination of normalized liquidity plus elevated positioning is where volatility tends to expand, not compress.

Markets will spend this week answering one key question:

Was the early January strength real accumulation, or simply a relief bounce into macro resistance?

Over the past week, risk appetite has quietly returned.

Bitcoin reclaimed the low $90Ks after a December pullback, equities stabilized, and higher-beta crypto segments began to see rotation. Importantly, this wasn’t isolated crypto behavior it coincided with broader risk assets firming as well.

That matters.

When crypto moves with macro risk rather than against it, it tells us liquidity is driving price not just speculation. However, this remains a fragile environment. Macro confirmation still matters, and this week’s data will determine whether liquidity continues flowing or pulls back again.

Bitcoin remains the market’s compass.

Structurally, BTC has recovered key psychological levels following December’s correction and is attempting to re-establish acceptance near the top of its recent range. The bigger picture remains constructive, but not confirmed.

What matters most right now:

If Bitcoin holds strength and confirms continuation, risk appetite can broaden. If it stalls or rejects, expect capital to rotate defensively and volatility to increase.

BTC still leads. Everything else follows.

Altcoins are responding but selectively.

We’ve seen early rotation into higher-beta areas, including memecoins and select layer-1s, which often act as a risk-appetite gauge at the start of a new year. That said, this is not a blanket “alt season” environment.

Conditions right now favor:

If Bitcoin remains strong and dominance stabilizes, alts can extend. If BTC chops or dominance rises, alt moves are likely to fade quickly.

This is a week for discipline, not overexposure.

Macro is back in focus, and this week is front-loaded with catalysts.

Early-week PMI data sets the tone, but the real volatility window sits mid-to-late week as labor data comes into play. ADP, JOLTS, jobless claims, and ultimately Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will shape rate expectations and by extension, risk appetite.

Historically, the first employment report of the year carries outsized influence. Markets tend to position ahead of it, fake out early, then reveal intent after the data clears.

Expect tighter ranges early → expansion later.

Here’s the under appreciated risk this week:

The danger isn’t bad data it’s good data.

Stronger-than-expected labor numbers can delay easing expectations, tighten financial conditions, and cap upside across risk assets, even in otherwise bullish structures. That scenario has historically pressured Bitcoin in the short term, especially when price is already elevated.

If markets rally into Friday, pay close attention to reactions not predictions.

This is not a week to force trades.

Patience here preserves capital and capital preservation creates opportunity when conviction returns.

The market is waking up.

Liquidity is back, macro matters again, and 2026 is beginning to reveal its first real signals. This week won’t define the year, but it will shape how the year starts and early positioning often sets the tone for what follows.

Stay sharp. Stay patient. Let the market show its hand.