The Quick Pulse:
The crypto market just closed out one of the wildest weeks of the year, a full-on leverage purge that reset the entire playing field. Trump’s 100 percent tariffs on Chinese tech sent shockwaves through global risk assets, with equities bleeding, the dollar ripping, and crypto taking the heaviest hit. More than 19 billion in liquidations flushed out the system as Bitcoin slid from above 126K to 104K before stabilizing near 110K. Ethereum held its ground around 4K, but the message was clear: too much leverage, too little liquidity, and no place to hide when macro turns against you. Add in the G20’s warning on significant gaps in global crypto regulation and a PayPal-linked stablecoin mishap that accidentally minted 300 trillion PYUSD, and you get a week that perfectly summed up why complacency kills in this market. What started as a tariff headline turned into a systemic stress test that forced every trader to tighten stops, cut noise, and respect volatility again.
Altcoins felt the full blast, most dropping 30 percent or more as leverage unwound across the board. Even in the chaos there were pockets of strength, with Bittensor (TAO), Mantle (MNT), and Zcash (ZEC) posting double-digit recoveries a sign that some capital is already rotating back into quality risk after the flush. For traders, this is not a new bull leg but a post-wipeout environment where discipline matters more than conviction. Bitcoin’s key zone sits between 105K and 110K, Ethereum between 3.8K and 4.6K, and until funding and liquidity stabilize, every bounce should be treated as tactical, not structural. The easy money phase is over for now, and precision, patience, and position control are what keep you alive through this cycle.
What news event(s) do you think will move the markets this week?
Macro Pulse: What Moved the Markets
📰 Last Week Recap
This article shared on X helps breakdown the Black Friday Crash liquidations of $19+ billion
The Kobeissi Letter had a great post that reviewed the timeline of events for the Black Friday Crash
Monad opened their airdrop claim portal on Tuesday ahead of their upcoming mainnet launch
Aster also had a token claim for their stage 2 airdrop on Tuesday
Binance announced a $400 million recovery fund for individuals impacted by the Black Friday Crash liquidations
MegaETH registration for their upcoming ICO started on Oct. 15th and is available until Oct. 27th
OpenSea shares details on upcoming token $SEA launching Q1 2026
Solana shared a post that summarized big news events across their entire ecosystem aligning with powerful partners shaping the success of SOL
📅 This Week to Watch
Wednesday, Oct 22nd – 10:30 AM EST
US Crude Oil Inventory – Measures the number of barrels stored in the US
Thursday, Oct 23rd – 10:00 AM EST
Existing Home Sales – Tracks monthly sales of existing homes and is a key indicator of the health of the US real estate market
Friday, Oct 24th – 08:30 AM EST
CPI – Measures the average change in prices paid by consumers acting as a key indicator of inflation
Friday, Oct 24th – 09:45 AM EST
Services PMI – Measures the health of the services sector based on purchase managers surveys
Friday, Oct 24th – 10:00 AM EST
MI Consumer Sentiment – Measures consumer confidence
Weekly Market Signal: 🟡 Neutral
Neutral Bias: After the Crypto Flash Crash it’s been an up and down week. I expect similar expectations for this week up until Friday with CPI.
Fear & Greed Index: 🚨 Fear
BTC | ETH | SOL
Weekly Price Action
Token Spotlight 🔦 - Bittensor (TAO)
🧠 TL;DR - What is Bittensor (TAO)?
Bittensor is a decentralized AI network that routes emissions to those who deliver useful model work across competitive subnets. TAO rallied recently on (1) Grayscale’s Form 10 filing for a Bittensor Trust (institutional access), (2) growing attention on the first TAO halving in December 2025, and (3) expanding subnet economics under Dynamic TAO.
Near-term, flows hinge on regulatory headlines and the halving countdown; medium-term, value accrues if subnet α-tokens sustain demand and validators/miners continue earning emissions through Yuma Consensus.
Main risks: its 2024 PyPI exploit history, regulatory lag, and potential subnet churn if incentives misfire.
🔹 Overview of TAO
Bittensor builds a peer-to-peer intelligence market where models (“miners”) perform AI work, validators score that output, and emissions are algorithmically distributed via Yuma Consensus.
Subnets operate as self-contained AI markets with their own α-tokens. TAO holders stake into subnets to earn α, effectively “voting with TAO” on which intelligence streams deserve emissions.
Dynamic TAO injects TAO / α each block and extracts rewards roughly every 72 minutes (“tempo”).
🔑 Core Mechanics
Emission Split & Cadence: Injection each block; extraction every tempo. ~41 % miners / 41 % validators + stakers / 18 % subnet owners.
Market-Priced Subnet Weight: α-token pricing and liquidity define emission weight — rewarding stakers who back high-value subnets.
🚀 Why It’s Up This Cycle
1️⃣ Grayscale Bittensor Trust (Form 10, Oct 2025) — introduces a path to regulated U.S. exposure and OTC tradability.
2️⃣ First TAO Halving (mid-Dec 2025) — emission supply cut by ~50 %, feeding a classic scarcity trade.
3️⃣ Dynamic TAO + Subnet Expansion — more α-markets (e.g., Coin Metrics’ “Precog”) validating the model.
4️⃣ Flow Data — CoinMarketCap trackers show derivatives flushes absorbed by spot buyers, implying institutional accumulation.
🏦 Investment Reasoning
Work-Token Demand Loop: TAO must be staked to validate or access subnets; growing AI throughput fuels TAO bidding.
Market-Based Emissions: Dynamic TAO routes inflation toward α-markets with measurable utility — emissions follow performance, not politics.
Regulated Access Flywheel: If the Grayscale Trust gains effectiveness, liquidity deepens, analysts cover it, and cost of capital falls.
Scarcity Overlay: A halving into peak AI hype compounds the reflexivity between price, security, and subnet productivity.
⚠️ Risks / What Can Break the Thesis
Security History: 2024 PyPI supply-chain exploit forced safe-mode; stronger processes now, but open-source risk persists.
Regulatory Delay: SEC could stall or deny the Form 10.
Incentive Drift: α-pricing misalignment may misroute emissions if markets can be gamed.
Post-Halving Economics: Lower emissions without price lift could reduce validator profitability and service quality.
⏱️ Catalysts & Watchlist (4–8 Weeks)
SEC comment cycle / effectiveness of Grayscale TAO Trust.
Halving countdown (~Dec 10-12 window) + issuance trackers.
New subnet launches / rotation quality / α market caps.
Security patch notes and supply-chain audit updates.
🌅 Why Future Returns Could Be Promising
✅ Regulated Access = New Capital Base: U.S. trust approval expands buyer universe.
✅ Real Subnet Utility: If α-markets anchor genuine inference / training demand, emissions accrue to productive work.
✅ Scarcity × Utilization Convergence: Halving + network growth sustain a reflexive flywheel (price → security → service → price).
📊 Quick Data Nuggets
Design: Peer-to-peer intelligence market; ledgered ranks & anti-collusion scoring.
Emissions: 41 % miners / 41 % validators + stakers / 18 % subnet owners; tempo ≈ 72 min.
Consensus: Yuma Consensus weights validator trust, trims outliers, and finalizes emission routing.
Narrative: Grayscale filing + halving countdown = structural scarcity meets AI demand.
✴️ The Quick Pulse Take
TAO sits where AI throughput meets crypto scarcity a rare dual narrative that institutions can model and retail can trade.
The halving, the trust filing, and Dynamic TAO’s live subnet rotation give it multiple storylines heading into Q4.
Keep it on the high-conviction radar: TAO isn’t just an AI token; it’s a programmable yield curve for intelligence itself.