This will be an interesting week ahead with a heavy focus on the overall labor market. Will we see bullish price action, or are we heading for a true September dip? This could be the final calm before the storm ahead as we had into a potential rate cut in September.

⚠️ Bias: Neutral as we head into September

Overview:
BTC is trading within a falling wedge, a bullish reversal structure. At the same time, CME futures gaps are present around 116.5k–118.4k (upside) and 106k–107k (downside). Positioning and gap dynamics create asymmetric risk/reward opportunities.

The Upside CME gap (116.5k–118.4k) shows a significant probability of being touched within 24–48h under high volatility.

Downside gap (106k–107k) carries lower odds in the near term but remains a tactical risk.

Trade Lens: Upside fills can act as magnets; rejection in the zone = tactical short opportunity. Clean break = continuation trigger.

Monitor volume and macro catalysts (Jobs Report, etc) for gap-driven volatility amplification.

Overview:
Ethereum futures positioning is at extreme levels. Large Speculators (hedge funds) are at record short exposure, while Commercials (institutions/hedgers) are at record long. Small speculators remain moderately long.

This imbalance sets up a key tactical decision point: either shorts press ETH lower, or they become overextended and vulnerable to a short squeeze.

Trade Plan:
Bearish Scenario (Short Bias): Stay short while ETH trades below $4,500. Stop = close above $4,500 (invalidates short thesis).

Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Look for failed breakdowns near $4,200–$4,250. If ETH breaks.

Neutral: Wait for directional resolution. Extremes suggest volatility is imminent.

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